1Drake MC 2Wait (Aestivation) vs. 3Act (IMBH) 4Verdict Summary
Four-stage workflow · Sandberg aestivation vs. Macro Transcension Hypothesis

Wait or Act?

If civilisations are rare but the future is open, should they hibernate until the CMB cools — harvesting 10³⁰× more computation per joule — or exploit an IMBH ergosphere now? Run the numbers on both strategies in one session and let the physics decide.

⚠ Theoretical (Fermi/Aestivation) 🔬 Established (Landauer, Hawking) ✦ Speculative (MTH)
No backend · No tracking · State in URL hash · v1.0 · 2026-06-01
01
Sandberg-Drexler-Ord (2018) — prior on N
Drake Monte Carlo — Are We Alone?
Set priors to establish whether the choice matters at all

The aestivation and MTH strategies are only meaningful if civilisations exist and survive to advanced stages. Stage 1 establishes the prior on N. If P(N<1) is high, both strategies are moot — the interesting case is where N ≥ 1 and a civilisation actually faces the decision.

Inputs
10⁻¹⁰
1,000 yr
Stage 1 outputs
Median log₁₀(N)
P(N < 1 in MW)
Decision relevant?
Passes forward: context. Both strategies are evaluated for a civilisation that exists — regardless of how likely that is.
02
Sandberg et al. 2017 / Bennett et al. 2019
Wait Strategy — Aestivation
Hibernate until the CMB cools; compute more per joule

Sandberg et al. argue that waiting until T_CMB ≈ 0 reduces the Landauer floor by (T_now/T_future), multiplying compute-per-joule by the same factor. Bennett et al. reply that cold reservoirs exist today and the gain is at most a few orders of magnitude. This stage computes both sides.

Inputs
10¹¹ yr
10⁴⁴ J (stellar)
Wait strategy outputs
T_CMB after waitK
Sandberg ops gain factor
Ops from E budget (Landauer)
Bennett caveat
Wait strategy total: ops from J
03
MTH — Macro Transcension Hypothesis
Act Strategy — IMBH Ergosphere
Compress into an IMBH ergosphere and compute now at near-limit rates

Instead of waiting, the MTH civilisation compresses into the ergosphere of ω Cen's IMBH and begins computing immediately using Blandford-Znajek power. No waiting required — and time dilation near the horizon means the civilisation subjectively computes faster than the exterior universe observes.

Inputs
30,000 M☉
a* = 0.900
10⁶ T
2.73 K
Act strategy outputs
BZ power P_BZW
Landauer ops/sec (now)
Ops over wait period Δt
Hawking lifetime t_evap
Act strategy total: ops over same Δt
04
Comparison · Bennett critique · Fermi implication
The Verdict
Which strategy wins? By how much? What does that imply?

Both strategies are evaluated over the same time window Δt from Stage 2. The comparison is: ops_wait (aestivation, using the same energy budget cooled by CMB temperature drop) vs. ops_act (IMBH running continuously over Δt). The Bennett critique is applied as a conservative correction to the wait strategy.

Strategy comparison (over Δt)
Wait: ops from E (Sandberg)
Wait: ops from E (Bennett)
Act: IMBH ops over Δt
Ratio (act / wait-Sandberg)
Fermi implication
If wait wins:
If act wins:
Bennett correction (act / wait-Bennett)
Computing…
✓ Wait or Act? — Full Summary
Median N (Drake MC)
civilisations
Aestivation gain
× Sandberg
IMBH ops/sec
Landauer
Act / Wait ratio
(over Δt)