OCS Research · Preprints
The Omega Centauri Research Papers
Three companion preprints (Swanson 2026) develop and test a single idea: that the thermodynamics of computation, not the urge to expand, predicts where the oldest technological civilizations end up — and that Omega Centauri (NGC 5139) is the most accessible place to look. Read each abstract below, or open the full paper.
Paper A · The hypothesisThe Macro Transcension Hypothesis: Spinning Black Holes in Dense Stellar Clusters as Thermodynamic Attractors for Advanced Civilizations, with Omega Centauri as an Observational Test Bed
AbstractMost proposed resolutions of the Fermi paradox assume that long-lived technological civilizations either expand outward, perish, or deliberately hide. We develop a fourth alternative, the Macro Transcension Hypothesis (MTH): that civilizations which optimize for long-term computation are driven by thermodynamics — not choice — toward a specific class of astrophysical environment, namely rapidly spinning massive black holes embedded in dense, old stellar systems, and that the migration and its endpoint are both electromagnetically quiet. The MTH extends the transcension hypothesis of Smart (2012) from planet-scale “inner space” to macroscopic black-hole infrastructure, and differs from the aestivation hypothesis of Sandberg, Armstrong & Ćirković (2016) in requiring no waiting strategy: the relevant free-energy and entropy-disposal advantages are available now. We quantify the case in four steps: (i) thin-disk accretion onto a Kerr black hole releases 5.7–42 per cent of rest-mass energy, versus 0.7 per cent for hydrogen fusion, while magnetically arrested disks extract additional spin energy at effective efficiencies exceeding 100 per cent of accreted rest mass; (ii) by the generalized second law, an event horizon is a thermodynamically ideal entropy sink, permitting computation arbitrarily close to the Landauer bound with negligible radiated waste heat; (iii) the Bekenstein–Hawking entropy of a ~2×104 M☉ black hole corresponds to ~1086 bits, exceeding any material archive; and (iv) per unit of harvested mass, this architecture outperforms Dyson-type stellar harvesting by a factor of ~40–60 in lifetime energy yield and by ~109 in instantaneous Eddington-limited power for a 2×104 M☉ hole. We then identify Omega Centauri (NGC 5139) — a ~4×106 M☉, ~12-Gyr-old stripped dwarf-galaxy nucleus hosting the nearest strong candidate intermediate-mass black hole — as the most observationally accessible system satisfying the MTH selection criteria, and present a falsification framework built on six instrument-matched tests: accretion-luminosity limits (JWST, ATCA), mid-infrared waste-heat limits, LISA extreme-mass-ratio-inspiral mass and spin measurements, millisecond-pulsar timing, stellar proper-motion accelerations, and neutrino burst searches (KM3NeT). Current data — including the unresolved tension between a ≥8,200 M☉ kinematic lower bound (Häberle et al. 2024) and a ≲6,000 M☉ pulsar-timing upper bound (Bañares-Hernández et al. 2025), and the complete electromagnetic silence of the central object (Mahida et al. 2026; Chen et al. 2025) — are consistent with both the MTH and the more parsimonious gas-starvation null hypothesis; we state explicitly which forthcoming observations would discriminate between them, and which would falsify the MTH outright. The hypothesis is offered in the falsificationist tradition of the aestivation and black-hole-computing literature: a speculative but physically grounded working model whose value lies in the concrete observational program it motivates.
Full paper → Paper B · The reviewInward Resolutions of the Fermi Paradox: A Critical Review of Migration Down Thermodynamic Gradients
AbstractMost catalogued resolutions of the Fermi paradox modify one of three things: the abundance of technological life, its longevity, or its visibility. A smaller family modifies its direction: these are the inward-migration hypotheses, which hold that mature technological intelligence does not expand outward across space but migrates down thermodynamic gradients — toward denser, faster, colder, and more computationally efficient configurations of matter — and that the observed silence of the sky is the external appearance of this migration. The family now includes at least seven distinguishable proposals spanning six decades: Dyson's eternal-computation bound and its descendants, Matrioshka-brain engineering, the migration hypothesis of Ćirković and Bradbury, Smart's transcension hypothesis, Vidal's stellivore interpretation, the aestivation hypothesis of Sandberg, Armstrong and Ćirković, black-hole computing proposals from Inoue and Yokoo through Dvali and Osmanov, and the recent Macro Transcension Hypothesis. These proposals share a single load-bearing premise — that the thermodynamics of computation, rather than expansion, reproduction, or communication, is the correct lens for predicting the behaviour of the oldest intelligence — yet they have never been reviewed as a family, their mutual inconsistencies have not been catalogued, and their sharply varying degrees of falsifiability have not been graded. This review attempts all three. We reconstruct the family tree and its intellectual debts; restate the unifying physics (Landauer's principle, the Margolus–Levitin bound, Bekenstein–Hawking entropy, and the temperature hierarchy of available entropy sinks) with explicit numbers; construct a comparative matrix of assumptions, energy logics, predicted observables, standing objections, and current observational status for each member; and grade each against five falsifiability criteria, from named-target specificity to pre-registered kill conditions. We then situate the family against its chief sociological competitors (zoo, dark-forest, and sustainability solutions), which predict the same silence from different premises, and argue that the inward family's distinguishing virtue is residue: thermodynamic optimization leaves dynamical and high-energy traces that fear and ethics do not. Open problems — goal stability over 108-year horizons, migration economics under Bostrom-type opportunity costs, the incomplete-compliance gap, and population-level consistency with grabby-aliens selection effects — are stated as research questions. We close with the observational program: the instrument-matched tests now feasible for each hypothesis, anchored by the first dedicated globular-cluster technosignature surveys and the multi-messenger campaign now proposed for Omega Centauri.
Full paper → Paper C · The observational campaignA Multi-Messenger Technosignature and Anomaly-Detection Campaign for Omega Centauri
AbstractOmega Centauri (NGC 5139), the most massive Galactic globular cluster and the probable stripped nucleus of an accreted dwarf galaxy, presents a unique conjunction of observational circumstances: the strongest current candidate for an intermediate-mass black hole (IMBH) in the Galaxy, anchored by seven stars moving above the local escape velocity (Häberle et al. 2024a); a formally unresolved factor-of-several tension between kinematic lower bounds (≥8,200 M☉) and a pulsar-timing upper bound (≲6,000 M☉; Bañares-Hernández et al. 2025); complete electromagnetic silence to the deepest radio and infrared limits ever placed on a globular cluster core (Mahida et al. 2026; Chen et al. 2025); a southern declination (−47.5°) optimal for the newest southern-hemisphere facilities; and a 12-Gyr-old stellar population. No dedicated technosignature search of ω Cen has ever been conducted at any wavelength: the first dedicated globular-cluster SETI survey (Huang et al. 2026) could not observe it. We present a coordinated, hypothesis-agnostic, multi-messenger observational campaign that addresses both conventional astrophysical questions (IMBH reality, mass, and spin; cluster dynamics) and technosignature/anomaly hypotheses (including the inward-migration class surveyed in the companion paper) with the same data. The campaign comprises eight instrument-matched programs: (1) JWST infrared accretion and waste-heat limits; (2) deep radio imaging, narrowband SETI, and millisecond-pulsar timing with MeerKAT, transitioning to SKA-Mid; (3) astrometric monitoring with HST, Gaia DR4, the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (launching August 2026), and ELT/MICADO; (4) a LISA extreme-mass-ratio-inspiral forecast; (5) a KM3NeT/ARCA neutrino burst pipeline exploiting ω Cen's up-going geometry from the Mediterranean; (6) Fermi-LAT archival analysis and CTAO-South follow-up; (7) optical/infrared time-domain and archival anomaly searches with Rubin/LSST and oMEGACat; and (8) supplementary archival channels (LIGO–Virgo–KAGRA continuous waves; Pierre Auger ultra-high-energy cosmic rays). For each program we state quantitative sensitivity estimates, time requests, decision thresholds, and explicit falsification criteria, including honest negative results: we show that direct astrometric acceleration detection of the fast stars is below 1σ at nominal parameters before ~2040, and route the astrometric science through photocentric-wander and reference-frame measurements instead. Total program cost is ≲ US$7M over 2026–2035, most of it archival analysis and piggyback observing on already-funded facilities; the decisive measurements (IMBH mass and spin via LISA) arrive as free by-products of planned mission science. The campaign is constructed so that every null result constrains conventional astrophysics, and every anomaly is adjudicated by at least two independent messengers.
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