The Dvali-Osmanov Signal Chain

A Phase 5 OCS civilisation operates kugelblitz computers — black holes formed from focused radiation, which evaporate via Hawking radiation and emit particles democratically across all Standard Model species. The neutrino channel is particularly valuable: neutrinos escape the IMBH accretion environment without absorption, unlike photons. Dvali & Osmanov (2023) showed that for kugelblitz with T_Hawking >> 1 GeV, approximately 45% of total Hawking power is emitted as neutrinos. At M = 10⁸ kg (Scenario A), T_H = 1.2×10¹⁵ K and total Hawking power 3.6×10¹⁶ W, with t_evap = 2.7 yr. At M = 10¹⁰ kg (Scenario B), T_H = 1.2×10¹³ K and Hawking power 3.6×10¹² W, four orders lower since P ∝ M⁻², but the longer evaporation time of 2.7×10⁶ years makes it a viable persistent signal source.

The neutrino flux from OC depends on total emitted power and the inverse-square law. A 10⁸ kg kugelblitz emits P = ℏc⁶/(15360πG²M²) = 3.6×10¹⁶ W of Hawking power, of which ~45%, or 1.6×10¹⁶ W, is neutrinos. Spread over 4πd² = 3.6×10⁴⁵ cm² at 5.49 kpc, the isotropic flux is 2.8×10⁻²⁰ GeV cm⁻² s⁻¹, about twelve orders of magnitude below IceCube's ~10⁻⁸ GeV cm⁻² s⁻¹ sr⁻¹ astrophysical sensitivity. Closing that gap would take ~10¹² simultaneous kugelblitz. A single much smaller one radiates far harder, since P ∝ M⁻²: at M = 1 tonne the power is 3.6×10²⁶ W, but t_evap = 8.4×10⁻⁸ s, so the burst is over before it can be pointed at. This tool lets you explore the detectability landscape by varying kugelblitz count, mass, and distance. The key result: the neutrino flux is real but buried, and only a large-scale coordinated fleet or a dedicated tonne-scale kugelblitz burst would cross the IceCube threshold.

A multi-messenger detection of the kugelblitz signal requires simultaneous excesses in the neutrino, gamma-ray, and possibly gravitational-wave channels. For the Dvali-Osmanov scenario, the primary channel is neutrino — but an OC-direction neutrino excess would trigger follow-up in Fermi-LAT (gamma-ray MSP background check) and MeerKAT (radio). The false-alarm probability from a single-channel detection is unacceptably high; the multi-messenger requirement raises the bar but also provides strong circumstantial evidence if multiple channels register simultaneously. A tonne-scale kugelblitz evaporating over seconds would also produce a gravitational-wave burst detectable by LIGO within ~0.1 pc. The multi-messenger alert tool maps the detection thresholds across all channels as a function of source distance and power.