OCS / Tools / TDE Detection Chain Workflow

1TDE Rate → 2Tidal Disruption → 3JWST Accretion → 4QPO Mass-Spin → 5Constraint Window
IMBH Evidence · Observational · Multi-messenger

If OC's IMBH Flared Today

A tidal disruption event in Omega Centauri's core would be one of the most scientifically valuable transients of the decade. This chain asks: how often does it happen, what would we detect, and what would it tell us about the IMBH mass and spin?

5 stages · Tools: TDE Rate, Tidal Disruption, JWST Accretion, QPO Mass-Spin, Constraint Stacker
🔬 Established physics (loss-cone dynamics, tidal disruption) ⚠ Observationally debated (OC IMBH parameters)
1
Wang & Merritt 2004 · arXiv:2507.06316
TDE Rate from Loss-Cone Dynamics
How often does a star get disrupted by OC's IMBH?
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Stars reach the tidal disruption radius of the IMBH through gravitational two-body scattering — the "loss cone" process. The rate depends on the stellar density within the influence radius and the relaxation time, entering through a loss-cone filling factor f_lc = 1/ln(r_h/r_t) (the ln-suppression form used by the TDE Rate Calculator, which supersedes an earlier (r_t/r_h)² estimate). For OC's parameters (σ ~ 16 km/s, ρ ~ 10⁴ M☉/pc³), the published estimate (arXiv:2507.06316) is Γ_TDE ≈ 5×10⁻⁸ yr⁻¹, giving a mean waiting time of ~20 Myr. Running the linked calculator at these same OC parameters instead returns Γ_TDE ≈ 1.09×10⁻⁸ yr⁻¹ (~92 Myr), a ~4.6× gap that is unreconciled here. Rare either way — but not impossible on observational timescales with next-generation all-sky monitors.

→ Open TDE Rate Calculator (OC default parameters)
OC TDE rate (Häberle 8,200 M☉)
~5×10⁻⁸ yr⁻¹ (published) / ~1.1×10⁻⁸ yr⁻¹ (this tool)
Mean waiting time ~20 Myr (published) / ~92 Myr (tool) · Einstein Probe monitoring window: ~20 yr → cumulative P(detection) ~10⁻⁶ over 20 yr (~5×10⁻⁸ per year)
↓ Handoff: if a TDE did occur, Stage 2 asks: what stellar type was disrupted, and at what distance from the IMBH?
2
Established GR · Rees 1988
Tidal Disruption Radius
At what radius does a star get disrupted, and does it enter the ISCO whole?
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The tidal disruption radius r_t = R_star × (M_BH/m_star)^(1/3). For a Sun-like star and M_BH = 8,200 M☉: r_t ≈ 0.094 AU — well outside the ISCO (a=0.5: ≈3.07×10⁻⁴ AU). The disruption generates a debris stream that circularises into an accretion disc. For very massive BHs (M_BH ≳ 2–4×10⁷ M☉, depending on spin), the ISCO moves outside r_t and stars fall in whole with no TDE. OC's IMBH mass range (6,000–8,200 M☉) is solidly in the TDE regime for main-sequence stars (r_t exceeds r_ISCO by a factor of ~306).

→ Open Tidal Disruption Tool (Sun-like star, 8,200 M☉) → Open Tidal Disruption Tool (white dwarf)
r_t for Sun-like star at 8,200 M☉
~0.094 AU
ISCO (a=0.5) ≈ 3.07×10⁻⁴ AU · r_t / r_ISCO ≈ 306 · full disruption occurs · debris circularisation ~weeks to months
↓ Handoff: the debris accretion produces peak X-ray emission. Stage 3 asks: what would JWST see and how does that constrain the IMBH mass?
3
Chen et al. 2025 · arXiv:2511.20945
JWST Accretion Constraints
What X-ray/IR accretion signature would JWST detect, and what mass upper limit would it set?
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The JWST accretion tool uses Bondi accretion + ADAF radiative efficiency to compute the expected NIR/X-ray signature. Chen et al. (2025) detected no accretion signature at OC's core, setting an upper limit M_BH ≤ ~20,000 M☉ (at ε ~ 10⁻³). A TDE flare would produce a transient accretion signal at ~L_Edd — far above the quiescent limit. During a flare, JWST would directly constrain the IMBH mass through the peak luminosity (L_peak = f_Edd × L_Edd = f_Edd × 1.26×10³¹ × M W). Additionally, the TDE Rate Calculator's detectability panel shows the Einstein Probe and Rubin LSST thresholds.

→ Open JWST Accretion (8,200 M☉, quiescent ADAF) → Open TDE Rate (detectability panel)
Peak TDE X-ray flux at OC (f_Edd=0.1)
~2.89×10⁻⁵ erg/cm²/s
~2.9×10⁶× above Einstein Probe WXT threshold (~10⁻¹¹ erg/cm²/s) · clear detection · simultaneous Rubin optical detection likely
↓ Handoff: the flare is detected. Stage 4 asks: can X-ray timing during the flare measure mass and spin via QPOs?
4
Török et al. 2011 · Bian et al. 2025
QPO Mass-Spin Constraint
What QPO period would be expected, and what mass-spin does it imply?
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During or after a TDE flare, the newly formed accretion disc can produce quasi-periodic oscillations at frequencies associated with orbital resonances near the ISCO. For M = 8,200 M☉ and a = 0.5, the 3:2 resonance upper frequency (this tool's Kerr epicyclic model) is ν_U ≈ 159 mHz (period ~6.3 s). Bian et al. (2025) found an 85-second QPO in a separate IMBH TDE, reported as consistent with M ~ 10,000–16,000 M☉. Running this tool's own 3:2 resonance model at the same 85-s period instead returns M ≈ 95,000 M☉ (res32_upper, a=0.3); no variant of the model implemented here reproduces Bian et al.'s published range (its floor across all variants is ≈52,000 M☉). The published figure and this tool's model should be treated as separate estimates, not cross-validating. A similar QPO detected in OC would still, in principle, constrain both mass and spin via this tool's own model, filling the gap left by the current kinematic vs. timing tension.

→ Open QPO Estimator (≈159 mHz predicted for 8,200 M☉, a=0.5) → Open QPO Estimator (85-s Bian+2025 analogue)
Expected QPO period (OC IMBH, 3:2 resonance, a=0.5)
~6.3 seconds
This tool's actual span is 5.5–9.0 s across a=0→0.998 at 8,200 M☉ · X-ray timing precision ~1% → joint M-a constraint
↓ Handoff: QPO mass-spin posteriors in hand. Stage 5 asks: how does this new constraint update the overall OC IMBH picture?
5
Häberle 2024 · Bañares 2025 · Chen 2025
Updated Constraint Window
How does a TDE observation shift the IMBH mass constraint window?
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The Constraint Stacker overlays all published mass constraints. Currently the window is paradoxically closed: Häberle (2024) sets ≥ 8,200 M☉ while Bañares (2025) sets ≤ 6,000 M☉ — an active tension. A TDE observation would add two new constraints: (1) a peak luminosity upper limit (tighter if the flare is sub-Eddington), and (2) a QPO mass-spin joint constraint. Together these might resolve the tension by ruling out part of the (M, a) space — or by revealing that the system is in a mass/spin regime that both existing constraints can accommodate.

→ Open Constraint Stacker (current state)
Current IMBH constraint window
CLOSED — 6,000 vs 8,200 M☉
Häberle ≥8,200 vs Bañares ≤6,000 · a TDE + QPO would add independent evidence · potentially resolves the tension
Workflow synthesis — the TDE detection chain
The chain reveals a consistent picture: OC's IMBH is rare but detectable. The published TDE rate of ~5×10⁻⁸ yr⁻¹ (this tool's own OC-default value: ~1.1×10⁻⁸ yr⁻¹) means we expect one event every ~20–92 Myr — no ongoing flare expected, but Einstein Probe monitors ~50,000 galaxies and globular clusters continuously. If a flare occurred, it would be detected within hours (~2.9×10⁻⁵ erg/cm²/s vs. EP threshold ~10⁻¹¹). JWST spectroscopy during the flare would constrain peak luminosity → mass. X-ray timing QPOs at ~5–9 seconds would give the first direct mass-spin joint constraint. And the Constraint Stacker would be updated with a new data point that could finally resolve the Häberle vs. Bañares tension that has kept the OC IMBH question open since 2024.