OCS / Tools / The Naked IMBH

1OC Dissolution → 2Wander Rate → 3Future Detectability → ✓Fate
Three-stage workflow · dissolution → wander → future detection

The Naked IMBH

Omega Centauri is dissolving. In ~15 Gyr, it will be gone. This workflow asks: what happens to the IMBH when its host cluster evaporates? Three stages trace the transition from stellar captive to naked wandering black hole in the Milky Way halo.

🔬 Established dynamics (stages 1–2) 🔭 Observational forecast (stage 3)
Refs: Baumgardt & Makino 2003 · Merritt 2001 · AXIS White Paper 2025 · v1.0 · 2026-06-03
01
Baumgardt & Makino 2003 · two-body evaporation + tidal stripping
OC Dissolution Timeline
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OC loses mass through both tidal stripping at each Galactic pericentre (~300 Myr orbital period) and continuous two-body evaporation. Current mass ~4 × 10⁶ M☉; dissolution (1% threshold) is expected in ~15–25 Gyr under nominal parameters.

Inputs
3.0 %
14.0 Gyr
8,200 M☉
Stage 1 outputs
Dissolution time Tdiss—Gyr
Half-mass time T½—Gyr
Mass at T+10 Gyr—M☉
IMBH ejection probability~0% (too massive)
→ Tdiss = — Gyr · MBH = — M☉
02
Merritt 2001 · equipartition Brownian motion
Post-Dissolution Wander
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During dissolution, the stellar cusp surrounding the IMBH depletes. The Brownian wander speed v_BH = σ × sqrt(⟨m★⟩/M_BH) drops as σ → 0. After full dissolution, the IMBH drifts through the Milky Way halo at the speed it had when the last stars departed — then wanders freely.

Inputs (T_diss, M_BH from Stage 1)
5.0 km/s
Stage 2 outputs
IMBH kick speed at dissolution—km/s
Proper motion in halo—µas/yr (from Sun)
Displacement in 1 Gyr—kpc
OC remnant orbitHalo wanderer — retrograde
→ IMBH wander speed = — km/s at dissolution · μ = — µas/yr
03
Roman · AXIS · LISA · future instruments
Future Detectability
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A naked wandering IMBH is detectable by several methods: Roman microlensing events (if it crosses dense fields), AXIS/Chandra X-ray emission from ISM Bondi accretion, and eventually LISA gravitational wave detection if it encounters a compact object. The detectability depends critically on the IMBH's location in the halo and the ISM density.

Inputs
0.010 cm⁻³
8.0 kpc
Stage 3 outputs
Bondi accretion rate (halo ISM)—M☉/yr
Predicted X-ray luminosity (ADAF)—W
AXIS/Chandra detectable?—
Roman microlensing event rate—
LISA GW detection possible?If encounter q≥10⁻³ in next Gyr
✓ The Naked IMBH — Fate Summary

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